1	Implications Of Minnesota Demographic Change To 2020 Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration April 27, 2005
2	We Are About To Enter An Important Period Of Rapid Change Minnesota is a prosperous and growing state Aging will challenge growth and prosperity and change our government priorities Aging will combine with growth, suburbanization, and increased diversity to dramatically change Minnesota
3	Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation It is not normal for a society to age Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011 and beyond By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double Aging, combined with three other trends lead to challenges and opportunities not fully anticipated
4	This Decade And Next Will See Dramatic Differences In Growth In Key Age Groups
5	Minnesota is Growing—Rapidly For A Cold Place At The End Of The Road Minnesota adds about half a million people per decade—713,000 by 2020 Census Bureau has us growing faster than any other Midwest and northeast state Census Bureau projections have us maintaining our 8 congressional seats And growth is age related—people who move long distances are younger
6	Minnesota Is Projected To Add 1.3 Million By 2030 & 2.1 Million By 2060
7	Most Of Our Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut The Minnesota portion of the Twin Cities is accounting for 78% of growth in the state The suburban ring is growing rapidly and spreading outward Many rural counties and Minneapolis and St. Paul are smaller than they were in 1950 Population growth is related to economic growth—huge differences exist in life experiences and prosperity across the state And this is age related—suburbs are younger/prairie is much older
8	Ten Counties With The Largest Gains In Minnesota 2003-04—Census Estimate
9	Minnesota is Growing More Diverse Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in the nation—13% minority v US 32% Over half of total population growth this decade is minority. Growing disparity in education and health outcomes And this is related to age—new, diverse population is younger
10	Minnesota Is Becoming More Diverse
11	Aging, Growth, Urban/Rural Differences, Diversity So What? Impact of Demographic Change On The Economy And Budget
12	Economic Growth Will Slow Labor force will age and grow more slowly Productivity levels must increase to grow Incomes will grow more slowly with retirements Consumption patterns (what we buy) will change
13	State’s Labor Force Growth Projected To Slow Sharply -- Future Economic Growth Will Depend More On Productivity
14	Income Tends To Rise to Middle Age Then Decline With Advancing Age
15	Revenues Will Grow More Slowly Income growth will slow Sources of income will shift to those with lower tax rates What we will buy (sales taxes) will change Older electorate will vote more conservatively on tax issues
16	Annual Expenditure On Selected Items By Age--2002
17	Aging Is Driving Health Care Cost Increases Sharply increasing costs will crowd out other expenditures Obesity has long run implications Disparities in health access and outcome—rural/urban, race/ethnicity
18	National Health Expenditures By Source Of Funding
19	Education—Enrollments Will Decline Slowly But Challenges Will Increase K-12 enrollments are declining slowly Students of color are increasing Higher education enrollments rising but will soon peak Achievement levels of students of color are a major issue Our ability to compete in the world economy will depend on the quality of our workforce, not its quantity
20	Minnesota’s Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in 2011
21	Environment And Economic Development Issue of water—quantity and quality. Many high growth areas of the nation are seriously short of water Large disparities and incomes and growth among different areas of the state Importance of labor force and productivity in future economic growth
22	Are We Investing Enough In Infrastructure? Building for growth—adding half a million people per decade Location—difficult to move from decline to growth areas Are we building enough to account for growth and redistribution of population?
23	State Government Operations Need To Change With The State Government workforce is aging and retirements will accelerate by 2008 Opportunity for workforce planning to move government forward Governance—some boundaries haven’t changed in a long time
24	Minnesota’s Dependency Ratio Will Begin To Rise In The Teens—Still Lower Than 1960s Level